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November 1, 2007 – UK market research firm Canalys has announced new forecasts for the global IPTV industry, estimating that there will be almost 40mn IPTV subscribers by the end of the decade, compared to under 4mn in 2006.
Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) accounted for two thirds of global IPTV subscribers in 2006, and the EMEA region is expected to remain the largest market for IPTV by 2010, when the region will account for 38% of the worldwide total. “France is the European IPTV trailblazer, boasting 1.3mn subscribers at the end of 2006,” said Alessandra Fitzpatrick, Vice President of Canalys. “Good, early uptake has been driven by a number of factors, notably low broadband prices, the prevalence of bundling low-cost IPTV services with broadband/telephony packages and limited competition from cable operators.”
Canalys expects to see strong subscriber growth in North America, with major operators Verizon and AT&T growing rapidly and moving beyond the infrastructure development phase. The research firm expects North America to account for 31% of global subscribers by 2010, compared to 9% at the end of 2006.
“The Asia Pacific region also offers huge potential, but the regulatory environment is restricting development,” Fitzpatrick commented. “The IPTV markets in China, Japan and South Korea are heavily constrained at present, although the 2008 Beijing Olympics may prompt Chinese authorities to accelerate plans.” Canalys predicts that there will be more than 11mn IPTV subscribers across the Asia Pacific region by the end of the decade, although it expects this figure to “easily be surpassed” if regulatory obstacles are overcome.
Canalys expects IPTV services in less developed regions to be restricted by shortcomings in deployed infrastructure and low levels of disposable income. The firm added however that network investment is high in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, and there is the potential for strong uptake beyond 2010, although this will be dependent on factors such as pricing, regulation and content availability.
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